Article Reviews, Economics, Macroeconomics

U.S. Still in a Secular Bear Market

Came across two interesting pieces from Barry Ritholtz today.

  1. A presentation that he made on May 23, 2012 in a UBS Investment Conference which he has kindly shared.
    • Link:
    • Key Points
      • U.S. is still in a secular bear market, we are over halfway in a rebound rally, once that rally tops, the next correction is ~25% down over 13 months.
      • Nonfarm payrolls (NFP): NFP post-2007 recession has not recovered in the same way as other recessions did. In the past 11 cycles, NFP recovered back to its peak just before the recession within 20 months. For the current recession, we have only recovered ~1/3 of the way back to the December 2007 peak.
      • Jobs: For most recessions, employment recovered back to peak employment within 24 months. After 51 months now, we are still 3.6% below.
      • Existing Home Sales: Gradually improving but still below 2007 levels.
      • New Home Sales: Seasonally-adjusted annual sales rate is still way before pre-crisis level.
      • Sectors that are working: Biotech, Consumer staples, Utilities, Natural Gas, Industrial, U.S. Treasuries
  2. MF Global Trustee’s Investigation Report


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